JOBSA person planning for a career today must look carefully at the expected occupational

JOBS

A person planning for a career today must look carefully at the expected occupational trends and changes in the job market. Affecting the economy are changes in the size, age, and distribution of the population, as well as developments in technology. These changes also affect employment opportunities. For example, an aging population has increased the need for medical care and other health services. Computer technology has not only eliminated or changed the nature of many jobs but also created new occupations. By analyzing the changing economy and the factors causing these changes, a person can forecast, or predict, future trends in employment.

A New Labor Force

The United States labor force—the total number of people over the age of 16 who are employed or are actively seeking work totaled 127 million in 1992. By the year 2005, the labor force is expected to reach 151 million, an increase of 19%. This increase represents a slight slowdown in the growth of the labor force compared with growth during the previous 13-year period, 1979-1992. The slowdown is largely due to slower population growth in the United States.

The U.S. labor force will become more diverse by 2005. White non-Hispanic men will make up a slightly smaller proportion of the labor force than in 1992, while women and minority group members will make up a larger share. Between 1992 and 2005, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other ethnic(种族的) groups will account for roughly 35% of all people entering the work force, In addition, women will continue to join the labor force in growing numbers. In 1979, women made up 420% of the labor force. By 2005, their share is expected to be 48%.

The age make-up of the U.S. population will change from 1992 to 2005. There will be a smaller proportion of children and teenagers and a larger proportion of middle-aged and older people. The decline in the proportion of children and teenagers reflects the lower birth rates of the 1980s and 1990s. The large increase in the middle-aged population reflects the aging of the baby boom generation—people born between 1946 and 1964.The rapid growth of the older population reflects both the high birth rates before the 1930s and improvements in medical technology that are allowing Americans to live longer.

The changing age make-up of the U.S. population will directly affect tomorrow's work force. Young people age 16 to 24 are expected to make up roughly the same percentage of the labor force in 2005 as they did in 1992. However, the percentage of workers age 25 to 34 will decline dramatically, from 28% to 21%. The baby boom generation will continue to add members to the work force, but their share will decline slightly. The most striking change will be a large increase in the percentage of workers between the ages of 45 and 54. These workers will account for 24% of the labor force in 2005, up from 18% in 1992. Workers in this age group usually have more employment experience than younger workers. Thus, employers will be able to choose from a larger pool of experienced applicants, people seeking jobs, in coming years.

Education: A Prerequisite(先决条件) for Employment

The education level of the labor force has risen dramatically in recent years. In 1980, for example, 19% of all workers age 25 and older had completed four years of college. In 1992, 27% had a bachelor's degree or higher. The trend toward higher educational achievement is expected to continue.

From 1992 to 2005, employment growth will be faster for occupations requiring higher levels of education or training than for those requiring less. Managerial, professional, and technical positions will make up an increasing proportion of new jobs that become available. Many of the occupations projected for grow most rapidly are those with higher earnings.

Office and factory automation, changes in consumer demand, and the

A．Y

B．N

C．NG