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LARRY SUMMERS, a Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, once said that "the world economy
American consumers have been the main engine not just of their own economy but of the whole world's. If that engine fails, will the global economy nose-dive？ A few years ago, the answer would probably have been yes. But the global economy may now be less vulnerable. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, Jim O'Neill, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, argued convincingly that a slowdown in America need not lead to a significant global loss of power.
Start with Japan, where industrial output jumped by an annual rate of 11% in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for that quarter (the official number is due on February 17th) to an annualised 4.2%. That would push year-on-year growth to 3.9%, well ahead of America's 3.1%. The bank predicts average GDP growth in Japan this year of 2.7%. It thinks strong demand within Asia will partly offset an American slowdown.
Japan's labour market is also strengthening. In December the ratio of vacancies to job applicants rose to its highest since 1992. It is easier to find a job now than at any time since the bubble burst in the early 1990s. Stronger hiring by firms is also pushing up wages after years of decline. Workers are enjoying the biggest rise in bonuses for over a decade.
Higher incomes mean more spending: households spent 3.2% more in December than a year earlier. And according to Richard Jerram, of Macquarie Bank, retail sales rose in 2005 for the first full year since 1996. In other words, Japan's growth is becoming much less dependent on exports. The disappearance of deflation has also reduced real interest rates, giving further support to domestic demand.
Even the euro area is emerging from the doldrums. In Germany in particular, vigorous corporate restructuring has boosted productivity and profits. So far, however, this has been at the expense of jobs and wages, and hence of consumer spending—although with capital expenditure picking up, new hiring is likely to follow. Mr O'Neill suggests that Germany is where Japan was 18 months ago.
The Ifo survey of German business confidence also indicates that the recovery is spreading to consumers. Retailers' confidence in January rose to its highest for five years. The expectations component of the overall survey rose to its highest since November 1994. If the traditional relationship between Ifo's business-confidence index and GDP growth holds, then Germany's economy could grow this year by much more than most economists are forecasting.
For the first time in many years, Germany's domestic demand looks set to contribute more to growth in 2006 than its net exports will. Elsewhere in the euro area, domestic demand has been the main source of growth in any case. According to Morgan Stanley, since 1999 it has supplied 95% of the zone's GDP growth. These economies are therefore more resistant to external shocks than is generally thought.
Although Germany is leading the pack, businesses throughout the euro area are feeling perkier. The European Commission's survey of business sentiment rose healthily in January, to a level that could signal GDP growth of well above the consensus forecast of 2% for this year.
Alongside stronger domestic demand in Europe and Japan, emerging economies are also tipped to remain robust. These economies are popularly perceived as excessively export-dependent, flooding the world with cheap goods, but doing little to boost demand. Yet calculations by Goldman Sachs show that Brazil, Russia, India and China combined
A．Global growth is less lopsided than for many years
B．a comparison of economies of the three engines of the global airplane.
C．America's impact on the world's economy
D．The three economy's contribution to the world economy
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